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Fascinating topic indeed. Maybe what we're talking about is the mass amateurization of programming. Off the top of I see connections to:
Eric von Hippel: Lead-User innovation http://web.mit.edu/evhippel/www/papers.htm
Shirky: "there's also a lot of downsourcing going on, the movement of programming from a job description to a more widely practiced skill." http://purpleslurple.net/ps.php?theurl=http://www.shirky.com/writings/situated_software.html#purp171
Mass amateurization:
http://www.plasticbag.org/archives/2003/09/weblogs_and_the_mass_amateurisation_of_nearly_everything/